STATE MODEL PREDICTS THIRD WAVE FOR KERN

A predictive model managed by the California Department of Public Health says Kern County is at the start of a third wave of coronavirus infections that will continue to increase over the next several months.

Under the worst-case scenario outlined in the model, the wave will peak in mid-November, with around 230 new cases per day. The figure is short of both the roughly 590-case peak from COVID-19’s first wave in July 2020 and the 916 new daily cases from the peak of the second wave in January of this year.

An “optimistic” scenario shows coronavirus peaking at around 93 new cases per day in late October.

The model was compiled using a number of studies from across the country. An earlier version of the model correctly predicted a huge spike in cases last winter.

Taking into account the lessons learned during the previous two waves, local hospitals have already begun to prepare for yet another surge in patients.